If science can't explain the last century
warming and cooling, we'll do it.
Here posted: May 02, 2021
“What Does 2000 Years
of Temperature Data Tell Us?”, is a good question in a recent essay by Willis Eschenbach at WUWT in March 2021 (see Ref.).
are Willis Eschenbach’s questions about this historical temperature record:
did the temperature start dropping after the Roman Warm Period? Why didn’t it
just stay warm?
did the cooling start in 200 AD, and not say in the year 600 AD?
did the temperatures start warming around 550 AD, and continue warming up to
the Medieval Warm Period peak at around 1000 AD? It could have stayed cold …
but it didn’t.
was that warming from 550 to 1000 AD, and not from say 800 to 1300 AD?
caused the steady cooling from about 1000 AD to the depths of the Little Ice
Age, where temperatures bottomed out around 1700 AD?
was that cooling from about 1000-1700 AD, and not e.g. 1250-1850 AD?
Instead of stopping at the year 1700 AD, why didn’t the world keep cooling down
to real glaciation? Given the Milankovich
cycles and the
lengths of the other warm interglacial periods, we’re overdue for another real
did temperatures start warming again at the end of the Little Ice Age, instead
of just staying at the 1700 AD temperature?
• Why has it
warmed, in fits and starts, from the Little Ice Age up to the present?
The discussion can be
separated in two parts: A) the time before the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA)
about 1850, and B) From the LIA until today. The conclusion by Willis
Eschenbach is simple and clear:
NOT ONE CLIMATE SCIENTIST KNOWS THE ANSWERS TO THOSE QUESTIONS.
That is a fair
assessment for the two millenniums before the end of the LIA. The listing of
the mentioned up and downs of air temperatures may be interesting for some, but
will unlikely ever be fully understood due to the absence of ocean data from
the sea surface down to 10’000 meters depths. A much more differed point is how
to assess the time after 1850 when the world started industrialization. In
Willis Eschenbach list is the last point: “Why has it warmed, in fits and starts, from
the Little Ice Age up to the present?”
Actually the question
should not be allowed to ask nowadays any longer. Beside from the fact that climatology
has become a huge money-consuming machinery since the 21th Century, the up-and
downs of global air temperatures, during the last 100 years, could have been
more investigated and explained. For sure the oceans meanwhile would have been
given a much more prominent role in assessing man-made climate change. This will be discussed in the following.
The overall consideration since
1850 can be subdivided in three aspects, natural, air pollution and human
activities on and in the sea:
After the end of an
Ice-Age the world had to get warmer, naturally. The real concern is what has
pushed the temperature in one or the other direction, and about what man has
caused or contributed. The human contribution would be brought in through two
media: the atmosphere and the oceans.
1. Science has been focusing on CO2 and air pollution
since the end of the Second World War, and b advocates its thesis under the
terms climate change and global warming.
It represents its thesis under the terms climate change and global
2. The human contribution to the influence of the oceans
on changes in weather patterns and the climate has so far played no role in
science. Many, if not most, of the temperature changes since the beginning of
the 21st century could be demonstrably explained.
In 2014 Judith Curry complained that models fail to simulate the
observed warming between 1910 and 1940, stating that the IPCC
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) does not have a convincing
from 1998 to present. The IPCC purports to have a highly confident explanation
for the warming since 1950, but it was only during the period 1976-2000 when
the global surface temperatures actually increased.
Had climate change
research taken the oceans and the bulk of human-ocean activities much more into
account, the whole debate on global warming would have since long on a very
different level. Our brief assessment is as it follows.
Warming from 1910-1940: The warming
commenced around Svalbard in the Atlantic section of the Arctic Ocean and the
Barents Sea in 1918. These waters are heavily dependent on a Gulf Stream
side-arm, passing Ireland in the West, while a small part flows through the
English Channel and around Scotland in the North Sea and then northwards with
the Norwegian Current. Four long years of intense naval warfare raged around
England up to the North Cape between 1914 and 1918. Shifts in the flow properties and structure of the warm
and salty Gulf Stream waters were inevitable. A direct connection can be established in numerous
events. This is presented in detail in a
book (2009) of approx. 100 pages; online: http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/
Cooling from 1940-1945: The global cooling time-frame is shown correctly. It began with a furious
start in the winter of 1939/40 and was repeated in the following winters of
1940/41 and 1941/41. All three winters in Europe were the coldest in over 100-120
years, at a time the LIA had not ended. But soon air temperature decreased
globally, which eventually lasted until the mid -1970s.
That had been caused by a
devastating naval war in the North Atlantic (1939-1945) and Pacific.
The three phases are easy to classify.
__ The three war winter in Europe: Naval war was largely confined to
particularly the North and Baltic Sea and other coastal waters from the Mediterranean
to the Barents Sea.
__ Since Pearl Harbor in December 1941, naval war covered the entire North
Atlantic and the Pacific east of Hawaii.
In huge areas, the sea surface was plowed to depths of
200-300 meters, their temperature and salinity shifted. Billions of objects, whether as
projectiles, torpedoes or ships, sank down to 10,000 meters to the sea floor. It takes many pages to discuss this,
as was done with the book, pages 216 (2012), online: http://www.seaclimate.com/
The Northern Hemisphere oceans
are dominated by clockwise circulations. The North Atlantic needs from Cape
Hatters to Cape Hatteras about four years. If huge areas of the oceans have been really mixed up, it
takes years, probably 2-3 decades, until the old state is restored. In this respect, James Lovelock's GAIA thesis could help
to understand this.
See the recent MADIUM Story.
Hiatus from 1998 to present. A logical
conclusion is, that after the LIA a global warming was inevitable, strongly
accelerated by WWI, (warming from 1918-1939), interrupted a significant global
cooling (1940-1970s) which can be linked to WWII. Once the effected ocean-structure had restored their usual structure (in mid
-1970s), the general warming since the end of the LIA plus the extra warming
push after WWI resumed, which lasted only few years. Since about 2000 the world
may be back to the overall trend prevailing since 1850. At least it is possible
that the main questions asked by Prof. J. Curry could in this way be answered.
However, science must be able and willing to do the job
The greatest unknown and urgent research
More interest in
the mentioned war-related climate changes should not be rutted by historical
considerations, but rather to commit more research to man-made induced climate
change. The illustrated influences of the two great naval wars would inevitably
lead to more attention being paid to activities on and in the sea. Shipping,
fishing, offshore wind parks and much more have contributed to global warming
for over 150 years. Whether low of high, it should be understood thoroughly.
See study: North and Baltic Sea - Climate and Human
Willis Eschenbach: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/22/millennial-co2-and-temperature/
Judith Curry https://judithcurry.com/2014/08/24/the-50-50-argument/
Book 2009: http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/
Book: 2012: http://www.seaclimate.com/
MEDIUM Story: James Lovelock; https://oceansgovernclimate.medium.com/james-lovelocks-gaia-theory-is-it-useful-a8c2d997b962
North and Baltic Sea - Climate and Human Activities: http://www.davidpublisher.org/Public/uploads/Contribute/569da5d061f90.pdf
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